A recent 5-year labour market forecast for Canada’s oil and gas industry says at best by the end of 2021 the industry will recover one-third of jobs lost in 2014-2016. This “modest recovery” case assumes US$55/bbl in 2017, increasing to US$75 by 2020-2021. In this seemingly optimistic price scenario, between 2017 and 2021 the industry would recovery 17,100 of the 52,600 jobs lost in 2014-2016.

The “delayed recovery” scenario (in yellow in the above graph) assumes job losses will slow a bit but continue in 2017. In this case, the industry will have lost 61,300 jobs in 2014-2017 and will recover 15,400 jobs in 2018-2021 (or about 1 in 4 jobs will be recovered). This scenario assumes US$46.50/bbl in 2017, increasing to US$60 by 2020-2021.

The Petro Labour Market Information report also contains predictions for specific types of job categories and other details: https://careers-oil-gas.s3.amazonaws.com/publications/20/CanadaWideReport_final.pdf?1490829882